Calculus Question

Question 1
1. Which of the following is considered a causal method of forecasting?
Answer
a. exponential smoothing
b. Delphi method
c. Holt's method
d. None of the above
5 points
Question 2
1. Which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy?
Answer
a. mean absolute percent error
b. Delphi method
c. regression
d. moving average
5 points
Question 3
1. When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naïve forecasting model?
Answer
a. during the first period in which it is used
b. ? = 1
c. ? = 0.5
d. ? = 0
5 points
Question 4
1. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to as a naïve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120, for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be 110. What would the MSE be for this situation?
Answer
a. 230.67
b. 42.00
c. 100.00
d. None of the above
5 points
Question 5
1. Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a two-day moving average.
Answer
a. 12.5
b. 28
c. 14
d. 13
5 points
Question 6
1. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent). The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be
Answer
a. 135.0.
b. 168.3.
c. 127.7.
d. 116.7.
5 points
Question 7
1. Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123. The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115. What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast?
Answer
a. 5
b. 7
c. 0
d. 108
5 points
Question 8
1. Which of the following is not considered to be one of the components of a time series?
Answer
a. cycles
b. seasonality
c. random variations
d. variance
5 points
Question 9
1. A time-series forecasting model in which the forecast for the next period is the actual value for the current period is the
Answer
a. exponential smoothing model.
b. naïve model.
c. weighted moving average.
d. Holt's model.
5 points
Question 10
1. In picking the smoothing constant for an exponential smoothing model, we should look for a value that
Answer
a. causes the least computational effort.
b. produces a nice-looking curve.
c. produces values which compare well with actual values based on a standard measure of error.
d. None of the above
5 points
Question 11
1. The computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment is referred to as
Answer
a. running sum of forecast errors (RFSE).
b. adaptive smoothing.
c. trend smoothing.
d. exponential smoothing.
5 points
Question 12
1. Which of the following is not a characteristic of trend projections?
Answer
a. A negative intercept term always implies that the dependent variable is decreasing over time.
b. They are often developed using linear regression.
c. Time is the X variable.
d. The variable being predicted is the Y variable.
5 points
Question 13
1. A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts. This tracking signal was positive. This would indicate that
Answer
a. demand is greater than the forecast.
b. demand is equal to the forecast.
c. demand is less than the forecast.
d. the MAD is negative.
5 points
Question 14
1. A seasonal index of ________ indicates that the season is average.
Answer
a. 1
b. 0
c. 0.5
d. 100
5 points
Question 15
1. A tracking signal was calculated for a particular set of demand forecasts. This tracking signal was positive. This would indicate that
Answer
demand is less than the forecast.
demand is greater than the forecast.
the MAD is negative.
demand is equal to the forecast.
5 points
Question 16
1. When both trend and seasonal components are present in time series, which of the following is most appropriate?
Answer
a. the use of simple exponential smoothing
b. the use of moving averages
c. the use of centered moving averages
d. the use of weighted moving averages
5 points
Question 17
1. A judgmental forecasting technique that uses decision makers, staff personnel, and respondent to determine a forecast is called
Answer
the Delphi method.
consumer market survey.
sales force composite.
jury of executive opinion.
5 points
Question 18
1. Which of the following is not classified as a qualitative forecasting model?
Answer
consumer market survey
exponential smoothing
Delphi method
sales force composite
5 points
Question 19
1. A graphical plot with sales on the Y axis and time on the X axis is a
Answer
a. bar chart.
b. line graph.
c. radar chart.
d. scatter diagram.
5 points
Question 20
1. A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time?
Answer
a. 1 month to 1 year
b. 2-4 years
c. 2-4 weeks
d. 5-10 years