trident bus520 module 2 discussion latest 2016 july

Module 2 discussion

Estimating Probabilities: Availability Bias

One of the biases that has been proposed by Kahneman and Tversky and researched a great deal is the Availability bias. What is the Availability bias? How might it play a role in the decision in SLP 2? Consider that the estimated probabilities for both of the High NPV future states are relatively high (0.50 and 0.75). How could the Availability bias be at work here? How could using objective data analysis like frequency distributions mitigate the effect of the Availability bias?

Week 1: Provide your initial discussion post to the question. Be sure to include references to any resources you used. You should use at least one resource to help you with your initial discussion.

Week 2: Respond to at least two of your classmates’ initial posts. Your response should be substantive and further the discussion. It is OK to be critical and use critical thinking. That means you can question what your classmates say. Do they provide their own critical thinking and logic?