Forecast that reflect very little happenstance fluctuation in the past data are said to exhibit

Question 1

1. Forecast that reflect very little happenstance fluctuation in the past data are said to exhibit

1. Seasonal effects

2. noise dampening response

3. impulse response

4. all of the above

5. none of the above

5 points

Question 2

1. A Winter's forecasting model that has zero values for the beta and gamma constants exhibit what type of behavior

1. A simple exponential smoothing model

2. Impulse response

3. Noise dampening

4. all of the above

5. none of the above

5 points

Question 3

1. In measuring forecast accuracy, the average of the absolute difference between the forecast and the actual demand is called

1. alpha

2. E-bar

3. MAD

4. all of the above

5. none of the above

5 points

Question 4

1. Choice the best type of forecasting methods for the type of data indicated

2. trend data that fits in a straight line D

short range forecast with no trends or seasonal effects E

random data with no seasonal effects or trends A

random data that illustrates a trend or seasonal pattern B

random data with a trend or no seasonal effect C

2.

3. random data with a trend or no seasonal effect

A. Exponential Smoothing

B. Winter's Method

C. Holt's Method

D. Linear Regression

E. Moving Average

20 points

Question 5

1. In order to establish a forecast method that exhibits impulse response;

1. an exponential smoothing forecast method should be used

2. the data must be linear

3. The alpha coefficient should be set close to 1 for exponential smoothing

4. The alpha coefficient should be set close to 0 for exponential smoothing

5. None of the above

5 points

Question 6

1. Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the forecast for November if a three month moving average model is used?

1. 49.25

2. 50.67

3. 53.00

4. none of the above

5 points

Question 7

1. Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, which month has a demand forecast equal to 55 for a 3 month moving average approach

1. April

2. June

3. August

4. October

5. None of the above

5 points

Question 8

1. Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the November forecast if exponential smoothing is used with an alpha value = .1

1. 47.9

2. 53.2

3. 40.8

4. 51.6

5 points

Question 9

1. Refer to the data, table 1, from the discussion folder. Using this data, what is the forecast error % for an exponential smoothing model with a alpha of .6

1. 10%

2. 12%

3. 14%

4. 16%

5. 18%

5 points

Question 10

1. Forecasting models are an integral part of business planning that requires input from

1. marketing

2. demand estimates

3. sales forecast

4. all of the above

5. none of the above

5 points

Question 11

1. The alpha coefficient in exponential smoothing

1. is set equal to the actual value in period 1

2. varies over a time series of data

3. is a value between 0 and 1

4. all of the above

5. none of the above

5 points

Question 12

1. Quarterly data which reflect an increase every fourth quarter followed by a decrease every first quarter are said to be

1. seasonal

2. cyclical

3. periodical

4. abnormal

5. following a trend

5 points

Question 13

1. To deseasonalize time series data

1. divide each actual value by the trend line intercept

2. divide each actual value by its seasonal index factor

3. divide each actual value by total forecast error

4. divide each actual value by the alpha coefficient

5 points

Question 14

1. A linear trend for 12 months of data is y = 339.02 + 23.96x. What is the forecast for the next quarter (January, Feruary and March)?

1. 1160.82

2. 1807.74

3. 2023.38

4. 3641.59

5 points

Question 15

1. Refer to the data in table 1 posted in the discussion folder. Using the data, what is the MAD for an exponential smoothing model with alpha = .1

1. 6.2

2. 7.7

3. 8.3

4. 8.8

5 points

Question 16

1. The delphi method of forecasting is

1. time series method for detecting seasonality

2. variation of exponential smoothing method

3. multiple regression method

4. qualitative method which solicits from experts

5. qualitative method for researching similar to data

5 points

Question 17

1. The ideal value of MAD is

1. 0

2. 100

3. 10

4. none of the above

5 points

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