CSU Fullerton ISDS 361B Bubble Up Bottling Company

Bubble Up Bottling Company

The Bubble Up Bottling Company of Budapest, Hungary, is interested in forecasting sales
of Bubble Up over the next two years. The company has analyzed Bubble Up's market share
for its service area over the past 20 quarters. Market share has generally been growing as
indicated in the table B below.
During this same five year period, total soft drink sales in the region (as measured in
100,000s of cases) have been as in the table A below.
Table A
Year
Season
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

1
114
130
158
131

2
114
146
177
142

3
124
151
175
146

4
132
160
184
144

5
134
166
205
148

The company would like to forecast Bubble Up soft drink sales for years 6 and 7. To do so,
use a linear trend model to forecast market share for each quarter of years 6 and 7 and
classical decomposition to forecast total soft drink sales in these periods. Then multiply
the forecast of total soft drink sales by Bubble Up's sales during this period.
Prepare a business report to Bubble Up management containing your forecast and
explaining your approach.

Year

Table B
Season

1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

Bubble Up's Market Share (in Percent)
6.42
6.58
6.99
6.82
6.64
6.46
6.7
7
6.7
6.84
6.78
6.48
6.93
6.79
6.83
7.21
7.73
8.16
8.36
8.23