Chapter 15 Forecasting

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

111) Use a 2-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

A) 227.5

B) 275

C) 280

D) 290

E) none of the above

112) Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

A) 283.33

B) 280

C) 290

D) 310

E) none of the above

113) If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if ? = .40.

A) 273

B) 277

C) 267.8

D) 286.2

E) none of the above

The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers.

Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4
1	150	140	190	165
2	160	148	210	175

114) What is the seasonal index for the third quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

A) .20

B) .22

C) .26

D) .30

E) none of the above

115) What is the seasonal index for the fourth quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

A) .20

B) .23

C) .25

D) .30

E) none of the above

116) The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for February of 2011. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is y = 4375 + 80t, where t = 1 for January 2009. The seasonal index for February is 1.25. The forecast for February is

A) 4575

B) 4583

C) 5719

D) 5729

E) none of the above

117) Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A) 2

B) 3

C) 4

D) 2.67

E) none of the above

118) Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean squared error?

A) 14

B) 18.67

C) 16

D) 12

E) none of the above