According to a recent estimate, the divorce rate in England

1. According to a recent estimate, the divorce rate in England has fallen to a 26-year low
(The Guardian, August 2008). However, it is documented that the rate of divorce is
more than twice as high for men and women aged 25 to 29. John Haddock is a
sociologist from Sussex University who wants to analyze the divorce rate based on an
individual’s age, family income, and the number of children the couple has. He collects
data on 30 individuals in a small town near Brighton, shown below.
Divorce

Age
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0

Income
19
46
40
69
44
78
30
99
93
32
91
81
35
93
25
35
51
41
94
31
68
79
26
79
38
56
93
94
71
26

Children
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
2
0
2
2
3
1
3
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
2
2
2
2
0

a) Estimate and interpret the Logit Model to predict Divorce (1 for Divorce; 0 otherwise)
with three potential predictors: age (1 if 25-29 years old; 0 otherwise), family income (in
€ 1,000), and the number of children. Find the ‘best’ model with these predictors

b) Do the data support the article’s claim that divorce rate is higher for those aged 25-29
years old? Explain in terms of the slope coefficient

c) Pick a good threshold for your prediction cutoff and find the sensitivity and specificity of
the model using that threshold.

d) Use the above estimates to predict the probability of a divorce for an individual who is
27 years old, has €60,000 of family income, and one child. Recalculate the probability
with three children.