Trident OPM300 full course (all case and SLPS)

FLOWCHARTS

STOP! Have you read, studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module Home Page and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting this Case.

As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide references and citations. It’s recommended you use the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web, looking for “clues.” There’s a lot of confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all the information you need. Study it – use it!

Case Assignment

You’ve been offered a job in another state, and have decided to sell your house.

First, you’ll need to decide on an asking price. You can either make this decision now, or wait until after you’ve chosen a real estate agent (if you do). If you settle on a price now, you can either base it on the appraised value of your property, which is on file at the county tax office, or set a price you’re confident is too high, but not too high to deter potential buyers who will, in turn, make counteroffers.

The next decision is whether to hire an agent. If you do, you’ll need to shop around. Begin by getting a list of agents from the Better Business Bureau (BBB). You’ll be looking for an agent who’s willing to guarantee a sale by a certain date, or take a negotiated cut in his or her commission. This is important to you, as you need to have a warm feeling that your house isn’t going to be on the market forever. Interview an agent. If the agent is willing to guarantee a sale, hire him or her. After consulting with the agent, set an asking price. This is the end of the process.

If the agent’s not willing to guarantee a sale, then interview the next one on the list. If you exhaust the list without finding an agent, then you’ll have to do without one, and list the house yourself. If you haven’t already decided on an asking price, do it now. This is the end of the process.

HINTS:

1. If you haven’t read and studied the Module homepage and the sources listed under Background Info,stop right here. Go back and do the reading. Otherwise, you’ll waste hours.

2. This Case isn’t about renting or selling houses. It’s about flowcharting. Don’t browse the Web looking for information about renting or selling property – that sort of information is irrelevant. This Case could just as easily be about diagnosing a sick lawnmower, or baking a cake. (But don’t think you can change the topic!)

3. Don’t browse the Web looking for information about how to create a flowchart, until you’ve read and studied the sources in the Module. The Case was designed with these sources in mind. They contain all the information you’ll need. You should reference and cite them, in accordance with the Writing Guide.

4. You aren’t being asked to write an essay about flowcharting, but rather to draw a flowchart. If your Case write-up doesn’t contain a flowchart, then it’s incomplete.

5. Despite 4 above, your Case should follow standard format, with a cover sheet and a brief discussion of the problem. Be sure to include references and citations.

Assignment Expectations

· Reduce the case to a series of discrete, single activities and decisions.

· Avoid clutter. In the flowchart, abbreviate the activities and decisions. If necessary, explain the abbreviations in a glossary.

· Use standard flowchart symbology.

· Provide a short (one or two paragraph) explanation of the chart. Include citations.

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online at
https://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· Clearly demonstrate your understanding of both the theory covered in the Module, and the particulars of the Case.

· References and citations ARE REQUIRED. As a minimum, you should reference the course materials. To see how these should be presented, please refer to the Background Info page. For good examples of in-text citations, please refer to the Module Background Pages.

FLOWCHARTS

Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. Before reading further, please be sure you’ve read the discussion about the Delphi process on this Module’s Homepage. It includes information that is not repeated here.

Topic:

For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood. Examples include

· The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.

· The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.

· The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.

The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about, and also know something about (although you need not be experts).

Participants:

You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants. Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can count on. These can be either family members, close friends, or other students (although not students enrolled in this course. They’ll be busy coordinating their own Delphi exercises.)

SLP Assignment Expectations

As closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailed example, which is cited in the Home Page discussion. You may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it. (This special dispensation is intended to help move things along.)

The SLP writeup should include

· The Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting their assistance.

· The first-round responses from the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online at
https://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However: If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation. (Example: “As Rodney Dangerfield always used to say, ‘I get no respect!’ “)

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Answer for TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING (Home page)

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threaded discussion

1. Discuss the problems you encountered (or, perhaps, are still encountering) while completing the Case exercise. Would you expect to encounter the same problems if you were drawing a flowchart of a “real-world” process? Why or why not? Explain in the context of an actual process with which you are familiar.

2. List some feature of a process that may make it difficult to depict using a flowchart. Here are two:

• A flowchart depicts a sequential series of processes. There’s no good way to show simultaneous processes.
• A flowchart has a start point and an end point. When describing a real process, those points may be arbitrary.

There are more. What are they?

Discussion General Expectations

1. In your first posting, you should demonstrate your comprehensive understanding of the concepts being discussed.
2. Make explicit use of those concepts to analyze and explain your example.
3. Critically apply your understanding to the examples provided by others. Do those examples clearly illustrate the concepts being discussed? Why or why not?
4. Provide relevant sources for any information that isn’t common knowledge.

DECISION TREES AND THE DELPHI PROCEDURE

STOP! Have you read, studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module Home Page and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting this Case.

As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide references and citations. It’s recommended you use the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web, looking for “clues.” There’s a lot of confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all the information you need. Study it – use it!

Case Assignment

All land within the municipality of Springfield is zoned for either agricultural, residential or commercial use. You have just purchased a parcel of agricultural land for $20,000 in the expectation that it will be rezoned next year. But the rezoning is controversial, and will be decided by the full City Council rather than just the Zoning Commission.

According to your inside sources, there’s a 30% chance the land will be rezoned for commercial use; in that event, you’ll be able to sell the land for $50,000. But the populists on the Council are pushing for more affordable housing; if they win the vote, which your sources think has a likelihood of 50%, then the land will be rezoned for residential use, and you’ll only be able to sell it for $30,000. Of course, the Greens may win, and the land won’t be rezoned at all. In that event, it will still be worth what you paid for it, but no more than that.

You’ve just been approached by Mr. Hi Roller. He’s a land speculator like yourself, but he doesn’t have your inside sources. He thinks the land will be rezoned next year, and has offered you $30,000 cash for it, right now.

Which alternative should you choose? Explain your decision process in detail.

Please read and heed the hints given in Case 1. The same general advice is applicable in this Case, in particular:

1. Read the source materials before beginning.

2. The Case is about decision trees, not flipping real estate.

3. Follow standard format. A cover page, a short discussion, references and citations are all required.

Assignment Expectations

· Provide a table summarizing the factual data.

· Explain the computations used to obtain the numbers in the table.

· Present a decision tree. (This may be hand-drawn, but it must be completely legible.)

· Explain the results of your computations, and how they support your answer.

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· Clearly demonstrate your understanding of both the theory covered in the Module, and the particulars of the Case.

· Provide references and citations. At a minimum, you should reference the course materials. These are referenced in APA format on the Background Info page.

DECISION TREES AND THE DELPHI PROCEDURE

Complete the second round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise, following the detailed example cited in the Home Page discussion. As before, you may copy and/or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it.

SLP Assignment Expectations

The SLP writeup should consist of:

· The Letters to the Participants, which include

o Thanks for their participation

o A summary of their first-round responses

o An invitation to submit the second round of responses, modified in light of what has been said so far.

· The second-round responses of the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However: If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation. (Example: “As Joan Rivers always used to say, ‘Oh, grow up!’ “)

Decision trees are attractive. They offer a straightforward way of writing down the various available alternatives, and choosing among them. But here are some questions that always need answering.

1. Can the decision really be reduced to a set of discrete alternatives? Are there some factors that can’t be listed and quantified, such as beauty and morality?
2. Where do the alternatives come from? Are they exhaustive; that is, have we discovered and listed all of them? Do they reflect reality, or only the biases and preconceptions of the decision maker?
3. How confident are we in the outcome values, aka the payoffs? Are they time-sensitive?
4. How confident are we in the probabilities attached to the outcomes? Where on earth do they come from?
5. In short: Is a decision tree really useful in this situation, or is it just a way of camouflaging a wild guess, and making it look “rational?"

Discussion 2 Expectations

Choose an organization with which you are familiar. Describe an important decision the organization has made, or a type of decision it routinely makes. Can a decision tree be used to make that decision? If so, how? If not, why not?

Discussion General Expectations

1. In your first posting, you should demonstrate your comprehensive understanding of the concepts being discussed.
2. Make explicit use of those concepts to analyze and explain your example.
3. Critically apply your understanding to the examples provided by others. Do those examples clearly illustrate the concepts being discussed? Why or why not?
4. Provide relevant sources for any information that isn’t common knowledge.

PERT/CPM

STOP! Have you read, studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module Home Page and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting this Case.

As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide references and citations. It’s recommended you use the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web, looking for “clues.” There’s a lot of confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all the information you need. Study it – use it!

Case Assignment

The Galaxy project consists of 8 interdependent tasks, labeled A through H. You’ve consulted experts, and have determined an optimistic, likely and pessimistic completion time (in days) for each of the tasks. The dependencies, and the times, are listed below.

1. Draw a path diagram for the project.

2. Calculate the expected length of each task. Fill in the following worksheet.

3. Use the following worksheet to determine the lengths of all possible paths. Determine the critical path. What is its length?

The Mojo Project consists of 14 interrelated tasks, A through N. Their estimated normal completion times, normal costs, crash times and crash costs are given below. (Times in weeks; costs in thousands of dollars.)

Use an online application (e.g., Sporkforge, 2014) to find the critical path, using the estimated normal times. Copy the output of the app into your upload as an image.

4. Which tasks are on the critical path?

5. What is the expected completion time of the project?

Instead of being finished in 4 weeks, task D takes 8 weeks.

6. Which (if any) tasks should be crashed, to make up the lost time? Why?

7. What is the additional cost of crashing the project?

Assignment Expectations

· For Part 1; Draw a PERT-CPM diagram clearly showing all the paths, plus the critical path. You may draw the diagram by hand, and paste a scanned image into your upload, but it must be totally legible.

· For Part 2; A PERT-CPM diagram is not required. Use an online app; paste an image of the app output into your paper.

· Show, and explain, all the calculations supporting your answers.

· Unambiguously state your answers.

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· Clearly demonstrate your understanding of both the theory covered in the Module, and the particulars of the Case.

· Provide references and citations. At a minimum, you should reference the course materials. These are referenced in APA format on the Background Info page.

PERT/CPM

Complete the third round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise, following the detailed example cited in the Home Page discussion. As before, you may copy and/or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it.

SLP Assignment Expectations

The SLP writeup should consist of:

· The Letters to the Participants, which include

o Thanks for their participation

o A summary of their second-round responses

o An invitation to submit the third round of responses, modified in light of what has been said so far.

· The third-round responses of the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However: If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation. (Example: “In the words of Monty Python, ‘And now for something completely different.’ “)

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TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING I: ANSWER

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TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING II: Answers

1. ACD.

2. 13 days.

3. C. (The first task on the critical path is A. If it goes over sked by one day, we can crash either C or D. Crashing C would make up 2 days, which is one day more than we need, but it would only cost $200. Crashing D would make up one day, but it would cost $300. So we crash C.)

threaded discussion

PERT-CPM, like the other tools considered thus far, is not a “Swiss Army knife.” It won’t solve all problems. Its usefulness is limited by the nature of the project, and the state of the manager’s knowledge about what the project will involve.

Here are some questions that need to be answered before deciding whether to use PERT-CPM. The list is far from exhaustive.

• To what extent can the project be broken down into discrete tasks? How should that breakdown happen? Example: When building a house, is tiling the floors and the shower stalls one job, or two?
• To what extent are the tasks sequentially dependent? Example: Again, when building a house, the kitchen exhaust fan should installed before the attic is insulated; but if need be, the insulation can be swept aside and the fan installed later.
• How accurately are the task durations known?
• How accurately are the task costs known?
• Are the start date and the deadline “set in stone,” or merely aspirational? (“It would be nice if we could move in before Christmas, but… well, you know, whatever.”)

We’re going to discuss projects we’re familiar with, either because we took part in them, or observed them closely. Was PERT-CPM used? Should it have been? COULD it have been? Why or why not?

Discussion 3 Expectations

Describe a project you’re familiar with. Analyze it carefully in light of the material covered in this module. List specific factors that made it more or less suitable for the PERT-CPM planning process. Was some version of PERT-CPM used? Should it have been? Why or why not?

Discussion General Expectations

1. In your first posting, you should demonstrate your comprehensive understanding of the concepts being discussed.
2. Make explicit use of those concepts to analyze and explain your example.
3. Critically apply your understanding to the examples provided by others. Do those examples clearly illustrate the concepts being discussed? Why or why not?
4. Provide relevant sources for any information that isn’t common knowledge.

LINEAR PROGRAMMING

STOP! Have you read, studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module Home Page and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting this Case.

As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide references and citations. It’s recommended you use the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web, looking for “clues.” There’s a lot of confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all the information you need. Study it – use it!

Case Assignment

1. Make a sketch of the feasibility region defined by the following constraints. Label the edges of the region with numbers; label the extrema with letters. Find and present the coordinates of the extrema. Assume that x and y are both equal to or greater than zero.

Version B: 2y<=2x, 2x+3y<=15, 3y>=x, x>=1

3. Eye-Full Optics assembles astronomical telescopes (x), premium binoculars (y) and student-grade microscopes (z) from imported parts. Each telescope takes one hour to assemble, each pair of binoculars two hours, and each microscope three hours; the availability of skilled labor limits assembly work to 1000 hours per day. Eye-Full has a contract with FedEx, and must ship no less than 400 items per day. A contract with a major retailer requires them to deliver a minimum of 100 telescopes, 250 binocs, and 50 microscopes per day. But there are supply limitations. The telescopes and binocs are shipped with the same eyepieces; each scope has one, and each pair of binocs has two. The subcontractor who supplies the eyepieces can only furnish 800 per day. Similarly, both the binocs and the microscopes use the same prisms; each pair of binocs needs two, and each microscope needs four. The prism supplier can only ship Eye-Full 1600 per day.

If Eye-Full makes a profit on $150 on each scope, $220 on each pair of binocs, and $300 on each microscope, how many of each should the company manufacture each day? What is its daily profit?

(Since the feasibility region is a volume in three-dimensional space, a sketch is not required.)

(HINT: Use an online app to solve Problem 3. Submit a screen shot of the output, plus an explanation.)

Please read and heed the hints given in Cases 1, 2, and 3. The same general advice is applicable in this Case, in particular:

1. Read the source materials before beginning.

2. The Case is about linear programming, not the wider topic of production planning.

3. Follow standard format. A cover page, a short discussion, references and citations are all required.

4. In case you missed it: Use an application to work out Problem 3. Insert a screen shot of the output. Be sure to provide a reference and a citation for the app you use.

Assignment Expectations

· Graphics must be neat, clear and complete. A graphics app can be used, but a freehand sketch is also acceptable.

· All calculations should be shown.

· All answers must be clearly stated.

· Relevant theory should be cited as necessary to explain which procedures were used to arrive at the answers, and why.

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online athttps://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· Clearly demonstrate your understanding of both the theory covered in the Module, and the particulars of the Case.

· Provide references and citations. At a minimum, you should reference the course materials. These are referenced in APA format on the Background Info page.

LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Complete the wrapup of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise, following the detailed example cited in the Home Page discussion. As before, you may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it.

SLP Assignment Expectations

The SLP writeup should consist of:

· The Letters to the Participants, which include

o Thanks for their participation

o A summary of their third-round responses

o A short narrative discussing the evolution of the decision-making process, how opinions shifted, what relevant factors the group identified, and what consensus (if any) the group arrived at.

· Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available online at
https://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.

· There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.

· In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However: If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation. (Example: “In the words of Monty Python, ‘And now for something completely different.’ “)

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TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING: Answer

The linear equations corresponding to the constraints are:

1. 2y = 3x

2. 2x + 3y = 15

3. 3y = x

Here’s the plot, with the lines, extrema, and the region labeled. It was created with Relplot, and the labels were added using the Snagit graphics editor. Using Relplot, it’s possible to create the sketch without knowing the coordinates of the extrema. That’s because the app takes the line equations as input.

Here’s another version. It’s less elaborate, but still perfectly acceptable. If you want to upload a hand sketch, however, you’ll have to do the calculations first, so you’ll know where to put the extrema.

Here’s how to find the coordinates of the extrema:

A: The only values of x and y that satisfy the equation 1 (that is, 2y=3x) is (0,0) . Ditto for equation 3. So the coordinates for A are

A(0,0)

B: This point is the simultaneous solution of equations 1 and 2; that is, of

2y=3x

2x + 3y = 15.

We’ll use the Webmath solver (Discovery, 2014) to find the values of x and y that satisfy both equations. There are many such apps on the Web; look for them using Google, or your favorite search engine.

Here’s what the setup looks like:

Proceed in the same way to find the coordinates of point C, which is simultaneous solution of equations 2 and 3; that is,

2x + 3y = 15

3y=x

The answer is C(5, 1.67).

Summary answer: Extrema are

A(0,0)

B(2,31, 3.46)

C(5, 1.67)

threaded discussion

s before, please discuss the applicability of linear programming to the types of allocation problems you may encounter in your own profession.

Discussion 4 Expectations

1. Discuss the problems you encountered (or, perhaps, are still encountering) while completing the Case exercise. Would you expect to encounter the same problems if you were using LP for a real-world allocation decision? Why or why not? Explain in the context of an actual allocation problem with which you are familiar.

2. List some characteristics of an allocation problem that may make it difficult to optimize using LP. Here are two:

• Constraints may not be totally predictable. For example, the price one can charge for a particular product may vary unpredictably over time.
• All of the constraints may not be known. For example, a new pollution regulation may limit effluents, thereby limiting a particular production process.

There are more. What are they?

Discussion General Expectations

1. In your first posting, you should demonstrate your comprehensive understanding of the concepts being discussed.
2. Make explicit use of those concepts to analyze and explain your example.
3. Critically apply your understanding to the examples provided by others. Do those examples clearly illustrate the concepts being discussed? Why or why not?
4. Provide relevant sources for any information that isn’t common knowledge.