Time Series Homework Assignment

Below you will find 3 years of historical data. Your job is to complete the table on the following sheet. I have even filled in a few of the blanks so that you know whether you are on the right track. You should forecast YEAR 3 using the following methods:

2 Period Moving Average, 3 Period Moving Average, 2 Period Moving Average (with A=1.5 & B=1),

Exponential Smoothing (with ? = 0.3 and assume the forecast for year 2 quarter 4 was 22) and

2 Period Moving Average using seasonally adjusted data. Also, which method is best based on the MSE?

You may use the rest of the sheets to do your calculations.

Year Quarter Sales

1 1 23

1 2 22

1 3 31

1 4 26

2 1 19

2 2 21

2 3 27

2 4 24

3 1 21

3 2 26

3 3 32

3 4 28