Shamrock oil owns a parcel of land that has the potential to be an underground

Question # 00101783 Posted By: kimwood Updated on: 09/09/2015 09:09 PM Due on: 10/09/2015
Subject Business Topic General Business Tutorials:
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Shamrock oil owns a parcel of land that has the potential to be an underground oil field. It will cost $500,000 to drill for oil. If oil does exist on the land, shamrock will realize a payoff of $4,000,000 (not including drill cost). With current information, shamrock estimates that there is a 0.2 probability that oil is present on the site. Shamrock also has the option of selling the land as is for $400,000, without further information about the likelihood of oil being present. A third option is to perform geological test at the site, which would cost $100,000. There is a 30% chance that the test results will be positive, after which shamrock can sell the land for $650,000 or drill the land, with a 0.65 probability that oil exists. if the test results are negative, shamrock can sell the land for $50,000 or drill the land, with a 0.05 probability that oil does exists.

a) Using a decision tree, recommend a course of action for Shamrock Oil.


You must state your answers within a complete sentence so that your understanding of applying the results of the computations can be observed. You should also include the work for your computation; this will assist in applying partial credit if your answers are not correct.


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  1. Tutorial # 00096156 Posted By: kimwood Posted on: 09/09/2015 09:09 PM
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    be positive, after which shamrock ...
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    Answer_05092015(4)_Decision_Tree_Shamrock.xlsx (13.85 KB)
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    Answer_05092015(4)_Decision_Tree_Shamrock.xlsx (13.85 KB)
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