SAINT GBA334 MODULE 2 QUIZ 1

ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below.

Next Year's Demand

Alternative Low High

Expand $100 $200

Subcontract $50 $120

Do nothing $40 $50

Refer to the information above. Assume that ABC Inc. has hired a marketing research firm that provided additional information regarding next year's demand. Suppose that the probabilities of low and high demand are assessed as follows: P(Low) = 0.4 and P(High) = 0.6.

What is the expected value under certainty?

0

140

160

200

Comments:

Question 2. Question :

A bakery must decide how many pies to prepare for the upcoming weekend. The bakery has the option to make 50, 100, or 150 pies. Assume that demand for the pies can be 50, 100, or 150. Each pie costs $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a nearby charity center. Assume that there is no opportunity cost for lost sales.

Refer to the information above. Assume that the bakery has obtained the following probability information regarding demand for the pies: P(50) = 0.3, P(100) = 0.5, and P(150) = 0.2.

What is the expected value under certainty?

0

90

190

280

Comments:

Question 3. Question :

A bakery must decide how many pies to prepare for the upcoming weekend. The bakery has the option to make 50, 100, or 150 pies. Assume that demand for the pies can be 50, 100, or 150. Each pie costs $5 to make and sells for $7. Unsold pies are donated to a nearby charity center. Assume that there is no opportunity cost for lost sales.

Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximin criterion?

Make 50 pies

Make 100 pies

Make 150 pies

Comments:

Question 4. Question :

A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.

Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected

Buy 1 machine $10 $5

Buy 2 machines $30 $4

Buy 3 machines $40 $2

Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the minimax regret criterion?

Buy 1 machine

Buy 2 machines

Buy 3 machines

Comments:

Question 5. Question :

ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below.

Next Year's Demand

Alternative Low High

Expand $100 $200

Subcontract $50 $120

Do nothing $40 $50

Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximin criterion?

Expand

Subcontract

Do nothing

Comments:

Question 6. Question :

An individual who is indifferent to risk would have a utility curve that is linear.

True False

Comments:

Question 7. Question :

A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager.

Alternative Bid Accepted Bid Rejected

Buy 1 machine $10 $5

Buy 2 machines $30 $4

Buy 3 machines $40 $2

Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the maximin criterion?

Buy 1 machine

Buy 2 machines

Buy 3 machines

Comments:

Question 8. Question :

Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3.

S1 S2 S3

A $60 $145 $120

B $75 $125 $110

C $95 $85 $130

What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? Assume P(S1) = 0.5 and P(S2) = 0.25.

$0

$11.25

$15

$20

$35

Comments:

Question 9. Question :

ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below.

Next Year's Demand

Alternative Low High

Expand $100 $200

Subcontract $50 $120

Do nothing $40 $50

Refer to the information above. Assume that ABC Inc. has hired a marketing research firm that provided additional information regarding next year's demand. Suppose that the probabilities of low and high demand are assessed as follows: P(Low) = 0.4 and P(High) = 0.6.

What is the expected value under perfect information (EVPI)?

0

140

160

200

Comments:

Question 10. Question :

ABC Inc. must make a decision on its current capacity for next year. Estimated profits (in $000s) based on next year's demand are shown in the table below.

Next Year's Demand

Alternative Low High

Expand $100 $200

Subcontract $50 $120

Do nothing $40 $50

Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the minimax regret criterion?

Expand

Subcontract

Do nothing