Saint GBA334 midterm exam Question # 00058112 Posted By: neil2103 Updated on: 03/29/2015 09:46 PM Due on: 03/31/2015 Subject Business Topic General Business Tutorials: 1 See full Answer Question Midterm ExamQuestion 1.1.A medium-term forecast typically covers a two- to four-year time horizon. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 2.2.A bakery buys sugar in 15-pound bags. The bakery uses 5000 bags of sugar each year. Carrying costs are $20 per bag per year. Ordering costs are estimated at $5 per order. Assume that the bakery is open 250 days a year and its daily demand is estimated at 20 bags. It takes 5 days for each order of sugar to be filled. What are the total annual holding costs? (Points : 2) $500 $1000 $20 $750 $250Question 3.3.One purpose of regression is to understand the relationship between variables. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 4.4.The number of phone calls coming into a switchboard in the next five minutes will either be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. The probabilities are the same for each of these (1/7). IfXis the number of calls arriving in a five-minute time period, what is the mean ofX? (Points : 2) 2 3 4 5 None of the aboveQuestion 5.5.A local ice cream shop sells 10,000 cones of vanilla-flavored ice cream each year. The cones are ordered from an outside supplier and it takes 5 days for each shipment of cones to arrive. Ordering costs are estimated at $15 per order. Carrying costs are $5 per cone per year. Assume that the ice cream shop is open 250 days a year. What is the average inventory of cones held in a given ordering cycle? (Points : 2) 122.47 244.95 141.42 70.71Question 6.6.The condition of improper data yielding misleading results is referred to as: (Points : 2) garbage in, garbage out. break-even point. uncontrollable variable. postoptimality. none of the above.Question 7.7.The number of cell phone minutes used by high school seniors follows a normal distribution with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. What is the probability that a student uses more than 580 minutes? (Points : 2) 0.152 0.0548 0.848 0.903 None of the aboveQuestion 8.8.A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager. Alternative Bid Accepted Bid RejectedBuy 1 machine $10 $5Buy 2 machines $30 $4Buy 3 machines $40 $2Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the Laplace criterion? (Points : 2) Buy 1 machine Buy 2 machines Buy 3 machinesQuestion 9.9.Suppose that 10 golfers enter a tournament and that their respective skill levels are approximately the same. What is the probability that one of the first three golfers that registered for the tournament will win? (Points : 2) 0.100 0.001 0.300 0.299 0.700Question 10.10.In the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment forecasting method, missing something is the: (Points : 2) slope of the trend line. new forecast. Y-axis intercept. independent variable. trend smoothing constant.Question 11.11.A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager. Alternative Bid Accepted Bid RejectedBuy 1 machine $10 $5Buy 2 machines $30 $4Buy 3 machines $40 $2Using the information above, which alternative should be chosen based on the criterion of realism with alpha = 0.8? (Points : 2) Buy 1 machine Buy 2 machines Buy 3 machinesQuestion 12.12.Properties of the normal distribution include: (Points : 2) a continuous bell-shaped distribution. a discrete probability distribution. the number of trials is known and is either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. the random variable can assume only a finite or limited set of values. use in queuing.Question 13.13.Our department store is having a sale on personal computers, of which three are in stock (no rain checks). There is a certain probability of selling none. The probability of selling one is twice as great as the probability of selling none. The probability of selling two is three times the probability of selling none. Finally, the probability of selling all the personal computers is four times as great as the probability of selling none.Using the above information, what is the probability of selling two personal computers? Hint: Let the probability of selling none equalx. (Points : 2) 0.24 0.27 0.3 0.33Question 14.14.A prediction equation for starting salaries (in $1,000s) and SAT scores was performed using simple linear regression. In the regression printout shown below, what can be said about the level of significance for the overall model?Click here to view an Excel version of this printout.(Points : 2) SAT is not a good predictor for starting salary. The significance level for the intercept indicates the model is not valid. The significance level for SAT indicates the slope is equal to zero. The significance level for SAT indicates the slope is not equal to zero. None of the aboveQuestion 15.15.The best model is a statistically significant model with a highr-square and few variables. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 16.16.Given three statistically independent events (A,B,C), the joint probability ofP(ABC) =P(A) ×P(B) ×P(C). (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 17.17.Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3. S1 S2 S3 A $60 $145 $120 B $75 $125 $110 C $95 $85 $130 Refer to the payoff table. Using the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion, what is the highest attainable expected profit? Assume P(S1) = 0.5 and P(S2) = 0.25. (Points : 2) $101.25 $103.33 $108.33 $125 $145Question 18.18.A prediction equation for sales and payroll was performed using simple linear regression. In the regression printout shown below, which of the following statements is not true?Click here to view an Excel version of this printout.(Points : 2) Payroll is a good predictor of Sales based on ? = 0.05. There is evidence of a positive linear relationship between Sales and Payroll based on ? = 0.05. Payroll is not a good predictor of Sales based on ? = 0.01. The coefficient of determination is equal to 0.833333. Payroll is the independent variable.Question 19.19.The classical method of determining probability is: (Points : 2) subjective probability. marginal probability. objective probability. joint probability. conditional probability.Question 20.20.Given the following distribution:(Click here to view an Excel version of this table.) The expected value is 3. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 21.21.The correlation coefficient resulting from a particular regression analysis was 0.25. What was the coefficient of determination? (Points : 2) 0.5 -0.5 0.0625 There is insufficient information to answer the question. None of the aboveQuestion 22.22.The diagram below illustrates data with: (Click here to view a pdf of the diagram.)(Points : 2) a negative correlation coefficient. a zero correlation coefficient. a positive correlation coefficient. a correlation coefficient equal to +1. none of the aboveQuestion 23.23.Which of the following statements provides the best guidance for model building? (Points : 2) If the value ofr2increases as more variables are added to the model, the variables should remain in the model, regardless of the magnitude of increase. If the value of the adjustedr2increases as more variables are added to the model, the variables should remain in the model. If the value ofr2increases as more variables are added to the model, the variables should not remain in the model, regardless of the magnitude of the increase. If the value of the adjustedr2increases as more variables are added to the model, the variables should not remain in the model. None of the statements provide accurate guidance.Question 24.24.The fewer the periods over which one takes a moving average, the more accurately the resulting forecast mirrors the actual data of the most recent time periods. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 25.25.Which of the following is true regarding a regression model with multicollinearity, a highr2value, and a lowF-test significance level? (Points : 2) The model is not a good prediction model. The high value ofr2is due to the multicollinearity. The interpretation of the coefficients is valuable. The significance level tests for the coefficients are not valid. The significance level for theF-test is not valid.Question 26.26.A measurable quantity that may vary, or is subject to change, and can be controlled is known as a(n) __________. (Points : 2) decision variable algorithm parameter solution none of the above.Question 27.27.A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager. Alternative Bid Accepted Bid RejectedBuy 1 machine $10 $5Buy 2 machines $30 $4Buy 3 machines $40 $2Refer to the information above. Assume that based on historical bids with the defense contractor, the plant manager believes that there is a 65% chance that the bid will be accepted and a 35% chance that the bid will be rejected.What is the expected value under perfect information (EVPI)? (Points : 2) 1.05 1.95 17.25 27.75Question 28.28.Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). What are the forecast sales for the next day using a two-day moving average? (Points : 2) 14 13 15 28 12.5Question 29.29.Which of the following represents the underlying linear model for hypothesis testing? (Points : 2) Y=b0 +b1 X+ ? Y=b0 +b1 X Y=?0 +?1 X+ ? Y=?0 +?1 X None of the aboveQuestion 30.30.Suppose that we determine the probability of a warm winter based on the number of warm winters experienced over the past 10 years. In this case, we have used: (Points : 2) relative frequency the classical method the logical method subjective probability None of the aboveQuestion 31.31.If two events are mutually exclusive, the probability of both events occurring is simply the sum of the individual probabilities. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 32.32.There is no relationship between variables unless the data points lie in a straight line. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 33.33.Consider the following payoff table that represents the profits earned for each alternative (A, B, and C) under the states of nature S1, S2, and S3. S1 S2 S3 A $60 $145 $120 B $75 $125 $110 C $95 $85 $130 Refer to the payoff table. What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? Assume P(S1) = 0.5 and P(S2) = 0.25. (Points : 2) $0 $11.25 $15 $20 $35Question 34.34.A series of steps or procedures that are repeated is known as an algorithm. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 35.35.Models that do not involve risk or chance are __________. (Points : 2) probabilistic models postoptimality models deterministic models MIS models None of the aboveQuestion 36.36.An urn contains seven blue and three yellow chips. If the drawing of chips is done with replacement, what is the probability of drawing a blue chip on the second draw given that a yellow chip was drawn on the first draw? (Points : 2) 0.027 0.210 0.300 0.700Question 37.37.Which of the following statements is false concerning the hypothesis testing procedure for a regression model? (Points : 2) TheF-test statistic is used. The null hypothesis is that the true slope coefficient is equal to zero. The null hypothesis is rejected if the adjustedr2is above the critical value. An ? level must be selected. The alternative hypothesis is that the true slope coefficient is not equal to zero.Question 38.38.Suppose that 10 golfers enter a tournament and that their respective skill levels are approximately the same. Six of the entrants are female and two of those are older than 40 years old. Three of the men are older than 40 years old. What is the probability that the winner will be a female who is older than 40 years old? (Points : 2) 0.000 1.100 0.198 0.200 0.900Question 39.39.Average starting salaries for students using a placement service at a university have been steadily increasing. A study of the last four graduating classes indicates the following average salaries: $30,000, $32,000, $34,500, and $36,000 (last graduating class). What is the predicted starting salary for the next graduating class using a simple exponential smoothing model with ?= 0.25? Assume that the initial forecast was $30,000 (so that the forecast and the actual were the same). (Points : 2) $30,775 $31,500 $32,625 $34,375Question 40.40.Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the “best of the worst” is the approach called: (Points : 2) maximax maximin Laplace minimax regret expected monetary valueQuestion 41.41.Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7. We can then say: (Points : 2) the third method is the best. the second method is the best. methods one and three are preferable to method two. method two is least preferred. None of the aboveQuestion 42.42.When the smoothing constant ? = 1, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the naïve forecasting model. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 43.43.A model is a representation of a situation. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 44.44.Which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy? (Points : 2) Exponential smoothing Moving average Regression Delphi method Mean absolute percent errorQuestion 45.45.The length of time that it takes the tollbooth attendant to service each driver can typically be described by the: (Points : 2) normal distribution. uniform distribution. exponential distribution. Poisson distribution. None of the aboveQuestion 46.46.A plant manager is considering buying additional stamping machines to accommodate increasing demand. The alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether their bid for a recent defense contract is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios faced by the manager. Alternative Bid Accepted Bid RejectedBuy 1 machine $10 $5Buy 2 machines $30 $4Buy 3 machines $40 $2Refer to the information above. Assume that based on historical bids with the defense contractor, the plant manager believes that there is a 65% chance that the bid will be accepted and a 35% chance that the bid will be rejected.What is the expected value under certainty? (Points : 2) 1.05 1.95 17.25 27.75Question 47.47.Saying that a set of events is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive implies that one and only one of the events can occur on any trial. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 48.48.A seasonal index of __________ indicates that the season is average. (Points : 2) 10 100 0.5 0 1Question 49.49.Assume that you have an urn containing 10 balls of the following description:4 are white (W) and lettered (L)2 are white (W) and numbered (N)3 are yellow (Y) and lettered (L)1 is yellow (Y) and numbered (N) If you draw a lettered ball (L), the probability that this ball is white (W) is 0.571. (Points : 2) True FalseQuestion 50.50.Consider a standard 52-card deck of cards. The probability of drawing either a seven or a black card is 7/13. (Points : 2) True False Rating: 4.9/5
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