MAT540 MIDTERM EXAM

• Question 1

5 out of 5 points

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

• Question 2

5 out of 5 points

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

• Question 3

5 out of 5 points

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

• Question 4

5 out of 5 points

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

• Question 5

0 out of 5 points

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

• Question 6

5 out of 5 points

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

• Question 7

5 out of 5 points

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

• Question 8

5 out of 5 points

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

• Question 9

5 out of 5 points

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

• Question 10

5 out of 5 points

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

• Question 11

5 out of 5 points

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

• Question 12

5 out of 5 points

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

• Question 13

5 out of 5 points

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

• Question 14

5 out of 5 points

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

• Question 15

5 out of 5 points

A seed value is a(n)

• Question 16

5 out of 5 points

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

• Question 17

5 out of 5 points

__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

• Question 18

5 out of 5 points

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

• Question 19

5 out of 5 points

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

• Question 20

5 out of 5 points

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

• Question 21

5 out of 5 points

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with ? = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

• Question 22

5 out of 5 points

rob

14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

Yield, bushels per acre Probability

350 .10

400 .18

450 .50

500 .22

The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

• Question 23

5 out of 5 points

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

• Question 24

5 out of 5 points

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

• Question 25

5 out of 5 points

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

• Question 26

5 out of 5 points

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

• Question 27

5 out of 5 points

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

• Question 28

5 out of 5 points

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

• Question 29

5 out of 5 points

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition

Poor Average Good Excellent

Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)

A 50 75 20 30

B 80 15 40 50

C -100 300 -50 10

D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

• Question 30

5 out of 5 points

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

• Question 31

5 out of 5 points

Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

• Question 32

5 out of 5 points

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

• Question 33

5 out of 5 points

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

• Question 34

5 out of 5 points

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year Demand Forecast

2001 16 18

2002 20 19

2003 18 24

• Question 35

0 out of 5 points

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year Sales

2001 2

2002 4

2003 10

2004 8

2005 14

2006 18

2007 17

2008 20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

• Question 36

5 out of 5 points

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

.96

• Question 37

0 out of 5 points

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual Demand

March 20

April 25

May 40

June 35

July 30

August 45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

• Question 38

5 out of 5 points

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

• Question 39

0 out of 5 points

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

• Question 40

5 out of 5 points

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year Sales Forecast

2003 7 9

2004 12 10

2005 14 15

2006 20 22

2007 16 18

2008 25 21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.