BUS105 Production and Operations Management HW Assignment 4
Number 1
Week Actual # of Patients
1 65
2 62
3 70
4 48
5 63
6 52
A B C
W4 0.167 0.16667 0.1
W3 0.25 0.25 0.2
W2 0.25 0.25 0.3
W1 0.333 0.333333 0.4
A B C
7 56.756 56.75 56.3
A) Value of forecast is __________
B) The forecast will ___________ as the weights remain the same
C) Forecast for week 7 is _______________
Number 2
A
Month Price Per Chip Two month Moving Average in $
January $1.80
February $1.67
March $1.70 $1.735
April $1.85 $1.685
May $1.90 $1.775
June $1.87 $1.875
July $1.80 $1.885
August $1.83 $1.835
September $1.70 $1.815
October $1.65 $1.765
November $1.70 $1.675
December $1.75 $1.675
B
Month
January
Price Per Chip
$1.80
Three month Moving Average in $
February $1.67
March $1.70
April $1.85 $1.723
May $1.90 $1.740
June $1.87 $1.817
July $1.80 $1.873
August $1.83 $1.857
September $1.70 $1.833
October $1.65 $1.777
November $1.70 $1.727
December $1.75 $1.683
C
Error for Two Month Error For Three Month
0.0305
0.165 0.127
0.125 0.16
0.005 0.054
0.085 0.073
0.005 0.026
0.115 0.133
0.115 0.126
0.025 0.026
0.075 0.067
Total 0.75 0.79
MAD Total 0.075 0.088
MAD For the 2 Month Total is performing better than MAD for month 3.
D
a=0.1 a=0.3 a=0.5
Month Price Per Chip Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error
January $1.80 1.8 0 1.8 0 1.8 0
February $1.67 1.8 0.13 1.8 0.13 1.8 0.13
March $1.70 1.79 0.09 1.76 0.06 1.74 0.04
April $1.85 1.78 0.07 1.74 0.11 1.72 0.13
May $1.90 1.79 0.11 1.77 0.13 1.79 0.12
June $1.87 1.8 0.07 1.81 0.06 1.84 0.03
July $1.80 1.8 0 1.83 0.03 1.86 0.06
August $1.83 1.8 0.03 1.82 0.01 1.83 0
September $1.70 1.81 0.11 1.82 0.12 1.83 0.13
October $1.65 1.8 0.15 1.79 0.14 1.76 0.11
November $1.70 1.79 0.08 1.75 0.05 1.71 0.01
December $1.75 1.77 0.02 1.73 0.02 1.7 0.05
Totals 0.86 0.86 0.81
MAD 0.72 0.072 0.675
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Price
2 Month Moving Average
Number 3
A
With a=0.6 Year
Actual
Forecast
Error
Absolute
1 At
45 Ft
41 At-Ft
4 Error
4
2 50 43.4 6.6 6.6
3 52 47.36 4.64 4.64
4 56 50.14 5.86 5.86
5 58 53.66 4.34 4.34
6 56.26
25.44
Calculate 0.6 Forecast
Calculate 0.9 Forecast
2 44.6
3 49.46
4 51.75
5 55.75
6 57.76
B Year Actual Forecast Error Absolute At Ft At-Ft Error
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56 49 7 7
5 58 52.67 5.33 5.33
6 55.33
12.33
Calculation of forecast
C
Year
1 Actual At
45
y*t
45
t^2
1 Forecast Error 42.6+3.2*t At-Ft
45.8
-0.8 Absolute Error
0.8
2 50 100 4 49 1 1
3 52 156 9 52.2 -0.2 0.2
4 56 224 16 55.4 0.6 0.6
5 58 290 25 58.6 -0.6 0.6
15 261 815 55 3.2
b1 160/50
bo=
Forecast for 6
D
a=0.6
a=0.9
3 year moving
Trend Projectio
Number 4 Method 1 Week
Method 1
Actual
E
E^2
1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.04
2 1.05 1 0.05 0.0025
3 0.95 1 0.05 0.0025
4 1.2 1 0.2 0.04
0.5 0.085
MAD ______
MSE _____
Method 2
Week Method 2 Actual E E^2
1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.01
2 1.2 1 0.2 0.04
3 0.9 1 0.1 0.01
4 1.11 1 0.11 0.0121
0.51 0.0721
MAD _______
MSE _________
Number 5
Time Period Month Income
1 February 70
2 March 68.5
3 April 64.8
4 May 71.7
5 June 71.3
6 July 72.8
Month February Income
70 Unajusted
65 Trend
0 Adjusted
65
March 68.5 65.65 0.1 65.6
April 64.8 65.89 0.16 66.05
May 71.7 65.92 0.13 66.06
June 71.3 66.62 0.25 66.87
July 72.8 67.31 0.33 67.65
August 68.16 0.44 68.6
Forecast for M ___________
Estimate __________
Adjusted Forec ________
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Rating:
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Solution: BUS105 Production and Operations Management HW Assignment 4