BMGT 311: Exam 1 Study Guide

1. What is the forecast for May based on a 3-period MA and a weighted 3-period moving average applied to the following past demand data? Let the weights be, 3, 3, and 4 (last weight is for most recent data). Compute MAD and MAPE for both cases and compare.

Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	April
37	36	40	42	47	43

2. Sales of music stands at the local music store over the past ten days are shown in the table below. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with ana of .6 (initial forecast = 16).

a) Compute the forecast for period 11 and the MAD.

b) Compute the tracking signal for periods 1 to 10. What do you recommend for this forecasting process?

t	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Demand	13	21	28	37	25	29	36	22	25	28

3. Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Forecast week 8 with a trend projection model.

Week Sales (cases)

1 17

2 22

3 27

4 32

5 35

6 37

7 41

4. The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal indices and find forecast for Year 4 if the annual demand for year 4 is estimated to be 10% more than that of year 3.

	YEAR 1	YEAR 2	YEAR 3
Quarter 1	1690	1800	1850
Quarter 2	940	900	1100
Quarter 3	2625	2900	2930
Quarter 4	2500	2360	2615

5. Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and profits for the stores are in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundred thousand dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million? $30 million?

Store	Sales	Profits
1	7	15
2	2	10
3	6	13
4	4	15
5	14	25
6	15	27
7	16	24
8	12	20
9	14	27
10	20	44
11	15	34
12	7	17