Strayer MAT540 midterm spring 2014
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model
parameters.
Answer
True
False
Question 2
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Answer
True
False
Question 3
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Answer
True
False
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Answer
True
False
Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Answer
True
False
Question 6
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Answer
True
False
Question 7
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
True
False
5 points
Question 8
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Answer
True
False
Question 9
A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Answer
0.80
0.032
0.24
0.096
Question 10
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer
marginal
conditional
binomial
revised
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer
expected opportunity loss
expected value
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
Question 12
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Answer
a limited number of possible outcomes
a uniform distribution
a detectable pattern
a detectable run of certain numbers
Question 13
A seed value is a(n)
Answer
steady state solution of a simulation experiment
number used to start a stream of random numbers
first run of a simulation model
analytic solution of a simulation experiment
Question 14
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a
machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns
from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week |
Probability |
Cumulative probability |
0 |
.10 |
.10 |
1 |
.25 |
.35 |
2 |
.36 |
.71 |
3 |
.22 |
.93 |
4 |
.07 |
1.00 |
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Answer
.10 |
||
.25 |
||
.35 |
||
.71 |
Question 15
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Answer
sampling from
running
integrating
implementing
Question 16
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
Trend only |
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Trend plus seasonal |
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Cyclical only |
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None of the above |
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Question 17 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a
local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Answer
|
Question 18
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
Cumulative error |
||
MAD |
||
MAPD |
||
Average error |
||
Question 19
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of
limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre |
Probability |
350 |
.10 |
400 |
.18 |
450 |
.50 |
500 |
.22 |
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Answer
425 |
||
442 |
||
440 |
||
475 |
Question 20
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Answer
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
Question 21
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer
Linear trend
Linear regression
Forecast demand
Linear equation
Question 22
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Answer
dependent, dependent
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent
Question 23
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Answer
Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
Question 24
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
Regression
Qualitative
Time series
all of the above
Question 25
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors
and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
Question 26
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.
Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is
Question 27
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each
week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a
table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents
the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving
xi complaints.
xi |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
p(xi) |
.10 |
.15 |
.18 |
.20 |
.20 |
.10 |
.07 |
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer
to two places after the decimal.
Answer
Question 28
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
Question 29
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or
D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic
conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor
Average Good
Excellent
Investment (S1)
(S2)
(S3) (S4)
A
50
75 20
30
B
80
15
40 50
C
-100
300
-50
10
D
25
25
25
25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05
respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Answer
Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1,
2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how
well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is
given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
Answer
Question 31
Consider
the following probability distribution:
Demand |
Probability |
0 |
0.15 |
1 |
0.30 |
2 |
0.25 |
3 |
0.15 |
4 |
0.15 |
Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?
Solution
Question 32
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on
gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer
with 2 places after the decimal point.
Answer
Question 33
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Answer
Question 34
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a
local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the
decimal.
Answer
Question 35
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year |
Sales |
Forecast |
2003 |
7 |
9 |
2004 |
12 |
10 |
2005 |
14 |
15 |
2006 |
20 |
22 |
2007 |
16 |
18 |
2008 |
25 |
21 |
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits
after the decimal
Question 36
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month |
Actual Demand |
March |
20 |
April |
25 |
May |
40 |
June |
35 |
July |
30 |
August |
45 |
Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July
is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Answer
Question 37
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month |
Actual Demand |
March |
20 |
April |
25 |
May |
40 |
June |
35 |
July |
30 |
August |
45 |
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42,
respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in
percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant
digits after the decimal.
Answer
Question 38
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year |
Sales |
2001 |
2 |
2002 |
4 |
2003 |
10 |
2004 |
8 |
2005 |
14 |
2006 |
18 |
2007 |
17 |
2008 |
20 |
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the
decimal.
Question 39
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for
when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
Question 40
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a
local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the
decimal.
Answer
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Solution: Strayer MAT540 midterm spring 2014