Strayer MAT540 midterm spring 2014

Question # 00021864 Posted By: neil2103 Updated on: 08/03/2014 09:29 AM Due on: 08/26/2014
Subject Mathematics Topic General Mathematics Tutorials:
Question
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Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Answer

True

False

Question 2

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Answer

True

False

Question 3

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Answer

True

False

Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Answer

True

False

Question 5

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Answer

True

False

Question 6

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

Answer

True

False

Question 7

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

True

False

5 points

Question 8

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Answer

True

False

Question 9

A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

Answer

0.80

0.032

0.24

0.096

Question 10

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

Answer

marginal

conditional

binomial

revised

Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Answer

expected opportunity loss

expected value

expected value of perfect information

none of the above

Question 12

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Answer

a limited number of possible outcomes

a uniform distribution

a detectable pattern

a detectable run of certain numbers

Question 13

A seed value is a(n)

Answer

steady state solution of a simulation experiment

number used to start a stream of random numbers

first run of a simulation model

analytic solution of a simulation experiment

Question 14

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week

Probability

Cumulative probability

0

.10

.10

1

.25

.35

2

.36

.71

3

.22

.93

4

.07

1.00



What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Answer


.10


.25


.35


.71

Question 15

In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

Answer

sampling from

running

integrating

implementing

Question 16

Consider the following graph of sales.



Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer


Trend only


Trend plus seasonal


Cyclical only


None of the above

Question 17

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with ? = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

Answer


273


277


267.8


286.2

Question 18

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer


Cumulative error


MAD


MAPD


Average error

Question 19

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

Yield, bushels per acre

Probability

350

.10

400

.18

450

.50

500

.22



The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

Answer


425


442


440


475

Question 20

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Answer

Qualitative methods

Regression

Time series

Quantitative methods

Question 21

__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Answer

Linear trend

Linear regression

Forecast demand

Linear equation

Question 22

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Answer

dependent, dependent

independent, dependent

dependent, independent

independent, independent

Question 23

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

Answer

Correlation

Linear regression

Coefficient of determination

Regression

Question 24

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

Regression

Qualitative

Time series

all of the above

Question 25

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 26

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.



The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is

Question 27

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

p(xi)

.10

.15

.18

.20

.20

.10

.07



What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 28

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 29

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Answer

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).



If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

Answer

Question 31

Consider the following probability distribution:

Demand

Probability

0

0.15

1

0.30

2

0.25

3

0.15

4

0.15

Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?

Solution

Question 32

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.



What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

Answer

Question 33

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Answer

Question 34

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

Question 35

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year

Sales

Forecast

2003

7

9

2004

12

10

2005

14

15

2006

20

22

2007

16

18

2008

25

21



Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal

Question 36

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Month

Actual Demand

March

20

April

25

May

40

June

35

July

30

August

45



Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Answer

Question 37

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month

Actual Demand

March

20

April

25

May

40

June

35

July

30

August

45




If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Answer

Question 38

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year

Sales

2001

2

2002

4

2003

10

2004

8

2005

14

2006

18

2007

17

2008

20




Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Question 39

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:


Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Answer

Question 40

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

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