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mat 540 mid term

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Subject: General Questions
Due on: 01/31/2014
Posted On: 01/18/2014 10:47 PM

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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Answer

Question 2

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A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Answer

Question 3

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A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 4

5 out of 5 points

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A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 5

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Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 6

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Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Answer

Question 7

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The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

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Question 8

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Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

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Question 9

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A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

Answer

Question 10

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__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 11

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The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 12

5 out of 5 points

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Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week

Probability

Cumulative probability

0

.10

.10

1

.25

.35

2

.36

.71

3

.22

.93

4

.07

1.00



What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Answer

Question 13

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In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

Answer

Question 14

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Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Answer

Question 15

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A seed value is a(n)

Answer

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__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 17

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__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 18

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__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer

Question 19

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Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Answer

Question 20

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Consider the following demand and forecast.

Period

Demand

Forecast

1

7

10

2

12

15

3

18

20

4

22



If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Answer

Question 21

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Consider the following graph of sales.


.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image003503a7ec5.jpg">

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 22

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Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 23

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__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 24

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__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 25

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An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

p(xi)

.10

.15

.18

.20

.20

.10

.07



What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 26

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A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 27

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An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image005503a7ec5.jpg">

The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 28

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A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 29

0 out of 5 points

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The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).

.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image007503a7ec5.jpg">

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 30

5 out of 5 points

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Consider the following decision tree.

.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image008503a7ec5.jpg">

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 31

0 out of 5 points

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A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 32

5 out of 5 points

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image004503a7ec5.jpg">

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 33

5 out of 5 points

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Month

Actual Demand

March

20

April

25

May

40

June

35

July

30

August

45



Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Answer

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31.6

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 34

5 out of 5 points

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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 35

0 out of 5 points

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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 36

5 out of 5 points

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image010503a7ec5.jpg">

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 37

5 out of 5 points

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month

Actual Demand

March

20

April

25

May

40

June

35

July

30

August

45




If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Answer

.126

.128

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 38

5 out of 5 points

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Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year

Sales

2001

2

2002

4

2003

10

2004

8

2005

14

2006

18

2007

17

2008

20




Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 39

5 out of 5 points

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This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image013503a7ec5.jpg">

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Answer

.gif" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/images/ci/icons/generic_updown.gif">Question 40

0 out of 5 points

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Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

.jpg" alt="https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540155VA015-1134-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image012503a7ec5.jpg">

What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

Answer

0.94

.94

Thursday, May 9, 2013 8:14:33 PM EDT

Tags term answer points question probability following forecast data number demand decimal distribution places variable value average complaints round week random july sales standard august consider aume

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Tutorial Preview …the xxxxxxx Answer xxxxxxxx 27 5 xxx of 5 xxxxxx An xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx has xxx following payoffs xxx probabilities Each xxxxxx is xxxxxxx xx one xxxxx The probability xx winning at xxxxx $1,000 xx xx ________ xxxxxx Question 28 x out of x points x xxxx insurance xxxxxxx wants to xxxxxxxx their annual xxxxxxx Assume xxxx xxx probability xxxxxxxxxxxx of the xxxxxxxxx of the xxxxxxxxxxxx is xxxxxxxxxxxxx x normal xxxxxxxxxxxx with a xxxx of 68 xxxxx and x xxxxxxxx deviation xx 4 years xxxx proportion of xxx plan xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx receive xxxxxxxx beyond age xxx Round your xxxxxx to xxxx xxxxxx after xxx decimal Answer xxxxxxxx 29 0 xxx of x xxxxxx The xxxxx operations manager xxx the IRS xxxx decide xxxxxxx xx hire xx 2, or x temporary workers xx estimates xxxx xxx revenues xxxx vary with xxx well taxpayers xxxxxx with xxx xxx tax xxxx The following xxxxxx table is xxxxx in xxxxxxxxx xx dollars xx g 50 x $50,000) If xx thinks xxx xxxxxxx of xxxx medium, and xxxx compliance are xxxx 30%, xxx xxx respectively, xxxx is the xxxxxxxx value of xxxxxxx information? xxxxx xxxxxx express xxxx answer as x whole number xx thousands xx xxxxxxx (e x 50 = xxxxxxxx Round to xxx nearest xxxxx xxxxxxx if xxxxxxxxx Answer Question xx 5 out xx 5 xxxxxx xxxxxxxx the xxxxxxxxx decision tree xxxx is the xxxxxxxx value xx xxxx 4? xxxxx your answer xx the nearest xxxxx number xx xxx include xxx dollar sign xxxxxxx in your xxxxxx Answer xxxxxxxx xx 0 xxx of 5 xxxxxx A normal xxxxxxxxxxxx has x xxxx of xxx and a xxxxxxxx deviation of xx A xxxxxxx xxxxx to xxxxxxxx one value xxxx this distribution, xxx has xxxxx xxx number x 4 randomly xxxx is the xxxxxxxxx value? xxxxxx xxxxxxxx 32 x out of x points Given xxx following xxxx xx the xxxxxx…
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Preview: Selected xxxxxxxxxxx expected xxxxx of perfect xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Answer:   expected xxxxx of xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 12 x out of x pointsTwo hundred xxxxxxxxxx runs xxxx xxxxxxxxx using xxx probability of x machine breakdown xxxx the xxxxx xxxxx   xxx average number xx breakdowns from xxx simulation xxxxxx xxx 1 xx with a xxxxxxxx deviation of x 20 xx xx of xxxxxxxxxx per weekProbabilityCumulative xxxxxxxxxxxx 10 101 xx 352 xx xxx 22 xxx 071 00 What xx the probability xx 2 xx xxxxx breakdowns?Answer xxxxxxxx Answer:   71Correct xxxxxxxxxxx 71Question 13 x out xx x pointsIn xxx Monte Carlo xxxxxxxx values for x random xxxxxxxx xxx generated xx __________ a xxxxxxxxxxx distribution Answer xxxxxxxx Answer:   xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx Answer:   xxxxxxxx fromQuestion 14 x out of x pointsDeveloping xxx xxxxxxxxxx probability xxxxxxxxxxxx helps to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Selected Answer:   xxxxxx number xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx random xxxxxx rangesQuestion 15 x out of x pointsA xxxx xxxxx is xxxxxxxxxx Selected Answer:   xxxxxx used to xxxxx a xxxxxx xx random xxxxxxxxxxxxxx Answer:   number xxxx to start x stream xx xxxxxx numbersQuestion xx 5 out xx 5 points__________ xx a xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx model xxxxxxxx demand to xxxx Answer Selected xxxxxxxxxxx Linear xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx Linear xxxxxxxxxxxxx 17 5 xxx of 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx methods xxx xxx most xxxxxx type of xxxxxxxxxxx method for xxx long-term xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx process xxxxxx Selected Answer:   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Answer:   QualitativeQuestion xx 5 xxx xx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx is absolute xxxxx as a xxxxxxxxxx of xxxxxx xxxxxx Selected xxxxxxxxxxx MAPDCorrect Answer:   xxxxxxxxxxxx 19 5 xxx of x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx of xxxxxxxxxxxxx is the xxxxxxxxxx of the xxxxxxxxx in xxx xxxxxxxxxx variable xxxx results from xxx __________ variable xxxxxx Selected xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx independentCorrect xxxxxxxxxxx dependent, independentQuestion xx 0 out xx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx following xxxxxx and forecast xx PeriodDemandForecast17102121531820422  If MAD x 2, xxxx xx the xxxxxxxx for period xxxxxxxx Selected Answer:   xxxx of xxx xxxxxxxxxxxx Answer:   xxxxxxxxxx 21 0 xxx of 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx the xxxxxxxxx xxxxx of xxxxx    Which of xxx following characteristics xx exhibited xx xxx data?Answer xxxxxxxx Answer:   None xx the aboveCorrect xxxxxxxxxxx Trend xxxxxxxxxxxx xx 5 xxx of 5 xxxxxxxxxxx of the xxxxxxxxx possible xxxxxx xx alpha xxxxx cause exponential xxxxxxxxx to respond xxx most xxxxxx xx sudden xxxxxxx in forecast xxxxxxxxxxxxx Selected Answer:  .....
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MAT 440 MIDTERM (100% SCORE) GUARANTEE

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Tutorial Preview …True xxxxx Question x 1 A xxxxxxxxxx random variable xxx assume xxxx…
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Preview: are xxxx 30%, xxx 50% respectively, xxxx is the xxxxxxxx value xx xxxxxxx information? xxxxx your answer xx the nearest xxxxxx Ans: xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx local xxxxxxxxxx manager for xxx IRS must xxxxxx whether xx xxxx 1, xx or 3 xxxxxxxxx workers He xxxxxxxxx that xxx xxxxxxxx will xxxx with how xxxx taxpayers comply xxxx the xxx xxx code xxxxxx he is xxxxxxxxxxxxx how many xxx workers xxxx xx hire?Ans: xxxxxxxxx 31Given the xxxxxxxxx random number xxxxxx and xxx xxxxxxxxx random xxxxxx sequence: 62, xxx 25, 40,  xxx 93, xxxxxxxxx xxx average xxxxxx for the xxxxxxxxx distribution of xxxxxx Ans: xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx highs xx Sacramento for xxx past week xxxxx least xx xxxx recent) xxxxxxx 95, 102, xxxx 96, 95, xx and xx xx Develop x forecast for xxxxx using a x day xxxxxx xxxxxxx Ans: xxxxxxxxxx 33 Consider the xxxxxxxxx annual sales xxxx for xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx the xxxxxxxxxxx coefficient Use xxxx significant digits xxxxx the xxxxxxx xxxx r= xxxxxxxxxxxx 34Daily highs xx Sacramento for xxx past xxxx xxxxx least xx most recent) xxxxxxx 95, 102, xxxx 96, xxx xx and xx   Develop x forecast for xxxxx using x xxxxxxxx moving xxxxxxxx with weights xx 6, 3 xxx 1, xxxxx xxx highest xxxxxxx are applied xx the most xxxxxx data xxxx xx 7Question xxxxxxx the following xxxxx compute the xxx for xxx xxxxxxxx Ans: xxxxxxxxxxx 36Given the xxxxxxxxx data on xxx number xx xxxxx of xxx cream sold xx a local.....
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