WHAT TO DO: As a first step in the teams decision making, you should forecast the quarterly demand for

each of the two types of containers for the years 2010 to 2012

. Based on historical trends, demand is expected

to continue to grow until 2012, after which it expected to plateau

. Julie must select the appropriate forecasting

method and estimate the likely forecast error

.Use the following methods to forecast quarterly demand for the years 2010 to 2012 in EXCEL:

(a) Moving Average

(b) Exponential Smoothing method

(c) Exponential Smoothing with Trend

(d) Time Series Decomposition

(e) For parts (a), (b) and (c), also compute the:

i

. forecasting errors (MAD, MSE, MAPE)

.ii

. standard error of forecast (SF), Bias and Tracking Signal,

iii

. also assuming normally distributed forecast errors, 90% confidence range for the 2010-2012

forecasts (i

.e

., using 90% = 1

.28)

.(f) Which method should she choose? Why? Explain by typing your answer in the EXCEL file

submitted

. Hint: Plot of the quarterly demand (versus time) for clear and black plastic containers will

help you to determine on the forecasting method

.WHAT TO SUBMIT: One of the team members should submit a SINGLE EXCEL file (

.xls OR

.xlsx only)

including all the TEAM MEMBERS NAMES/IDs in the file through the IE341-Project2-Fall2014-EXCEL

File Submission available under Assignments in Blackboard

. Failure of submission will result in a 0 mark

for the project

. You can use the Week08-Forecasting-InClassExercise

.xlsx (under Course Materials in

Blackboard) as a template for your answer

. Note that for parts (a), (b), (c), (d), (e) and (f), you should have

separate worksheets in the same file

. No need to submit your answers as a printout (as I will only mark your

EXCEL file only

.)